Mannan Shah, the senior account manager – 6 years’ experience as Trader/dealer
What 3-5 factors are most important to consider to help predict future relationships between currencies?
The main determination for currency movement is the key interest rate for that particular country. For the US, if the Federal Reserve says there will be a major hike in interest rate by December 2016, it will struggle against other currencies. The expectation of the interest rate is the main factor.
The second thing is economic outlook and future growth expectation in that particular country. The US regularly release a jobs report that will give you insight into where the economy is heading. Manufacturing, retail sales, and inflation can weight a lot on the currency movement.
The third thing is political balance and uncertainty in that particular country. The GBP has dropped 28% since Brexit. Even though the UK is still currently within the EU, the uncertainty of the situation has had an effect. In the next couple days, the US election will play a major role in the deciding the USD movement as well.
What particular 2-3 factors are you looking at to help you predict the Pound to USD relationship over the next two months (Nov/Dec 2016)?
The biggest factor will be the election. Donald Trump is causing major volatility in the stock market. Depending on how the elections turnout 8 November, we could see a lot of volatility. In Mannan’s opinion, if Donald Trump gets elected, we could see the sterling spike to upwards of £1.30 per dollar overnight because Trump himself, is unpredictable.
Another factor that could affect it would be that in December 2016, the Fed plans to raise interest rates. According the Mannan, the election will determine what the Fed will do in December.
The euro and the dollar relationship is quite important for UK sellers since they often sell in Euro to the rest of the Eurozone but buy their products in dollars from Chinese suppliers. What’s your prediction on the future of the Euro vs. the dollar?
The euro and the dollar have been trading in a tight range for about a year and a half. It has been trading between €1.08 and €1.14 range. Going forward, he doesn’t see that changing much. The main expectation is on the US side now; looking into 2017 and seeing what the Fed does. Recently, the euro dipped to €1.08 but has bounced back to €1.11. If the Fed decides to raise rates in 2017, we could see the euro drop to €1.05 and possible €1.03 for every dollar.
The euro will remain much more stable against the dollar than the sterling because of Brexit. Brexit will continue to drag the value down for another year or two if not more, as everyone waits to see what deals the UK makes with other countries once they are out of the EU in 2019 or whenever that happens.
When you have speculation in the news all the time, that reflects in the currency markets with volatility so the rates keep shifting. Is that correct?
Yeah. Generally, the way the currency market moves, it looks for what is coming next rather that what has already happened. What is usually on Bloomberg or other news sources is what has already happened. So the big article will be that the Fed says this, but the market has already moved based on expectation. If the outcome isn’t what the market expected and there is a big shock, then the market moves dramatically. Much like what we had when the Brexit vote came in. Just before the results were announced, it was believed that the people would vote to remain in the EU, but 4 hours later the market dropped 1100 points.
To sum that up, if something is expected, that has already been priced into the market. It’s the unexpected events that causes weird volatility. For example, if the markets expect the UK to leave the EU with almost no rights to access it, such as no passports for the city of London, and so forth, then that will already be priced into the currency exchange. But if May comes out of the meeting and actually, the EU will be generous to Britain, and they have done something special, you could see the pound suddenly get much stronger.
Exactly, as long as the expected happens, you won’t see much movement. For example, in the US election, Clinton is expected to win. If Trump comes out as the winner, that would be a shock to the market and you might see the S&P drop 5-7%.
What can we, as small businesses, do to help mitigate those risks in a practical sort of way over the next couple months? Taking into account the US elections, Federal interest rates, and the UK politics surrounding Brexit.
Take advantage of forward contracts to lock in currents exchange rates and avoid any uncertainty. If your feel that your margins are good enough, you can make sure that, regardless of what happens, you will have that same rate. Then you can work your pricing on the product.
Can you share your best practices?
The first thing you should do is get yourself set up with a free e-tailer collection account. This will help avoid expensive conversion costs.
When you are buying stock from your suppliers, don’t use banks for supplier payments, use Currencies Direct. This will save you money on currency exchange, which lowers your cost and improves your margin. Not only do banks tend to hit you with extra charges, they sometimes take three or four days to send currency whereas currency exchange specialists will generally send it within 24-48 hours.
Take advantage of your account manager. They can help you set up forward contracts if needed, as well as contact you if there is a notable movement in exchange rates and you can set up notifications so that you are always up to date with what’s going on.